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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.